ALG’s updated July/August 2014 edition has residuals declining 1.5 ppts compared to May/June 2014; this is more negative than expectations for a 1.0-ppt decline:
First quarter 2014 GDP contracted at a 1.0% annual pace according to the most recent estimate; data released since then points to an even stronger contraction
Employment rose by 217,000 positions in May; this is the fourth consecutive month with job gains of over 200,000
Gains in housing have slowed recently; though the Case-Shiller index of home prices is up over 12% over the last year, prices have risen just 0.7% in the last 6 months to March, with home sales slightly lower than last year