First, sales of EVs (BEVs + plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs) will grow to about 41 million in 2040. That will put total EV ownership at about a 25 percent of the global fleet.
Second, by 2040, EVs will account for 35 percent of new vehicle sales (and rising).
Third, look what happens to poor plug-in hybrids. They never rise above niche sales and are rather quickly rendered irrelevant by BEVs. I wonder if we’ll even see much development in the PHEV space, with this kind of forecast floating around. Maybe for large commercial vehicles?
BNEF acknowledges that two things could substantially alter this forecast.
One is that oil prices could go even lower than expected. Note that BNEF’s forecast is based on the Energy Information Administration’s “low” reference case for oil prices, which has them rising to around $70 per barrel in 2040.