Bertel Schmitt:

Bernstein Research is one of the few analysts that truly know the car industry. They don’t just dissect balance sheets, they take whole cars apart to find competitive (dis)advantages. Bernstein thinks that the G3, Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler, are about to roll over Tesla, and that supposedly quick-footed Tesla is too slow to do anything about it.
 In a research report distributed today to customers, Bernstein analyst Max Warburton writes that German automakers, previously known as dismissive about the electric car thing, are having a change of mind. And change their minds they must. Tight EU 2020 CO2 targets were thought achievable only with lots of diesel cars. Suddenly, this does not look like a good plan. Suddenly electric is in, as the leverage provided by EV super credits helps to make up for the expected diesel shortfall. EU super credits are not like the Californian kind, where a few compliance cars, and an unused swap station make you look good in the eyes of CARB. In Europe, you will actually need to sell the EVs to make them count. However, come 2020, one EV sold will count as two towards the fleet average.