Having enjoyed a roaring comeback from the depths of the global financial crisis, the auto industry is shifting back into cruise control. Though European auto sales appear to have staged a mini comeback in September (up 6 percent), growth has slowed more dramatically in China than anyone expected (up just 3 percent). With the bottom falling out of Russian demand, India stuck in neutral and South America dipping again, automakers are facing renewed pressure to make up for that weakness with sales in the U.S. market.
The burning question: Can the U.S. market sustain the growth automakers need to keep rolling along? According to forecasts by J.D. Power, AutoNation Chief Executive Officer Mike Jackson and others, there’s nothing to worry about: Sales in the U.S. will rise to nearly 17 million units next year. But history is littered with such optimistic forecasts, subsequently abandoned when growth slows. And there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that auto sales have gone as high as they can go.